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Citron Research presented an intriguing bear case on Shopify in October - the market seems to have wisely ignored this thesis. SHOP has long been a darling of the Online store thesis market, given its position at the intersection of two trends that have been dramatically reshaping the economy in the past decade: Simply put, Shopify provides the tools necessary for a small to medium sized business to build an e-commerce presence without the burden, expense, or time required to build a custom e-commerce website.
This is a very valuable tool for many small businesses - in the current economic environment, it is basically a requirement to have an e-commerce store, but the onerous cost of several hundred thousand dollars of development expense is too high for most small to medium sized businesses.
Shopify offers an excellent entree into e-commerce: Shopify offers a fully integrated solution, allowing you to accept orders, accept payments, and manage inventory and shipments. Additionally, Shopify offers a merchant cash advance platform through Shopify Capital, which provides much needed working capital to many of these small businesses which have difficulty getting financing from traditional banks; Shopify does this by securitizing the loans against future revenue the store expects to earn.
This portion of the business is actually quite interesting as it is like an OnDeck 2. In OctoberCitron Research presented a short thesis which sent the stock tumbling by over 20 percent in just a few days.
The crux of the short thesis was that Shopify has a good software platform, but much of its revenues are tied to new sign-ups linked to affiliate marketers selling online business opportunities.
Said another way, Citron uncovered different videos online and promotions for services offering people instruction on how to set up online businesses, and Shopify was the preferred provider of software enabling the online store front. Citron compared these advertisements to MLM marketing schemes whereby the primary source of revenue is new sign ups - where the primary business is selling the opportunity because the actual opportunity itself is not profitable.
After the initial fall in Shopify stock, the stock has since recovered substantially: It is certainly possible some of the growth has been due to business schemes being pitched, and Shopify should certainly do more to police those, but the KPIs suggest there are a lot of businesses doing very well on the Shopify platform.
FB and Instagram for many consumer-oriented businesses, the ability to follow through the conversion from advertising all the way to purchase is immensely valuable. Additionally, the Facebook lookalike tool actually allows you to try to target your ads to people demographically similar to your existing customer base.
There was a great article in the NY Times that expounded on this. One interesting takeaway from the article is that Hubble is built on the Shopify platform; it is one of the biggest success stories given it was entirely built on Facebook and Shopify.
Hubble has raised millions of dollars in VC funding and has a valuation that is in the hundreds of millions, if not billions, all thanks to the potent combination of Facebook and Shopify.
In many ways, Facebook and Shopify are to the digital economy what landlords of expensive retail store fronts were in the retail heydays before the onslaught of e-commerce. Facebook and Shopify are now able to extract sizable rents from small and medium-sized businesses due to the fact that they provide the critical gateway to selling goods online to the millions of online consumers.
While the valuation of Shopify is certainly daunting and does not leave a ton of room for error if the company were to have any issues executing on the market opportunity, the platform is an essential component of the e-commerce landscape and will likely continue growing rapidly for the years to come.
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